Sunday, January 15, 2012

Hindsight is 20/20: NBA Draft

part 2/3

Sometimes draft picks just don't work out. As we saw in part 1, many factors can contribute to a surprising draft dud. For draft experts, words like "potential," "upside," and "raw" turn into curses. Draft effectiveness can determine the future of a club and wasted picks can put the development of a team on permanent hold. But sometimes smarts and amazing good luck brings out a star late in the draft and the teams fortunate enough to discover these second-round gems get an immense boost from an unlikely source. Where a draft bust can make a team look pretty silly in retrospect, a steal in the second round makes a team look savvy and can push them to the next level.



Biggest Draft Second-Round Steals of the Aughts

1999 - Manu Ginobili 57th
- Ginobili is such an international gem and draft steal that he warrants stretching the decade back by a year to 1999. Numerous teams have tried unsuccessfully to draft an obscure European talent late in NBA drafts to try to replicate the Manu Ginobili phenomenon. Ginobili has been an All-Star twice and helped his Spurs to three NBA titles. The Argentinian guard once won Sixth Man of the Year and his international resume is extremely decorated. Ginobili has averaged 15.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game and even more in the playoffs. Ginobili is 34 years old now, but is still one of the most dangerous playoff performers.

2001 – Gilbert Arenas 30th
- Gilbert Arenas made coming out of the second round a personal challenge. Gil took it upon himself to prove that he belonged in the first round as a lottery pick, and to toast all of those who doubted that his undersized combo-guard skill set would translate in the NBA. Nicnamed "Agent Zero" after the number he donned while with the Wizards, Arenas became the lovable underdog. A popular and clutch player, Arenas played in three All-Star games and averaged 21.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals in Golden State, Washington, and finally Orlando, where he last played. Though Gil is still dealing with fallout from a 2009 incident involving bringing a handgun to an NBA locker room, and is temporarily unsigned, his mark on the NBA was dramatic, and his status as a cult hero for late draft picks was cemented at his explosive and short-lived peak.

2005 – Monta Ellis 40th 
- The speedy shooting guard has been dubbed the Mississippi Missile and can score with the best of them in the NBA. Bursting through after his first season in Golden State, Ellis has averaged 19.4 points, 4.2 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. In the past two seasons he has led the league in minutes played per game and averaged 25.5 and 24.1 points per game. Often knocked for not being a traditional ball-distributing point guard, Ellis has yet to crack an NBA All-Star team, but his exciting style suits Golden State's uptempo offense perfectly. Monta still may end up an All-Star, but his easiest path to league stardom rests with his ability to carry the Warriors on his back.

2002 – Carlos Boozer 35th
- Boozer has struggled to look like an All-Star since arriving in Chicago, but he earned these lofty expectations through his breakthrough play in Cleveland and Utah alongside LeBron James and Deron Williams. Boozer was also a part of the 2004 bronze and 2008 gold-medal winning USA Olympic teams. Having averaged 17.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per game over his career and appearing twice in the NBA All-Star game, Boozer has definitely overachieved for a second round pick. His play with the Bulls this season and next will determine whether the Bulls keep him around while seeking a title under the competitive pairing of MVP Derrick Rose and coach of the year Tom Thibodeau.

2007 – Marc Gasol 48th
- An afterthought in the deal that brought his All-Star older brother Pau to the Lakers, the draft rights to Marc ended up with Memphis. Marc has quickly established himself as one of the best post players in a league devoid of solid centres. The 7'1" Spaniard helped Spain to the gold medal game in the 2008 Olympics, and helped his #8th seeded Grizzlies team upset the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs in the 2011 NBA playoffs. Gasol has averaged 12.6 points per game on .545 shooting and 7.8 rebounds and is in the conversation for second-best centre in the NBA. Still just 26, Gasol has room to improve too, not bad for the 48th pick.

2000 – Michael Redd 43rd
- All-Star and Olympic gold medalist, Michael Redd's sharpshooting career came to a premature end with a series of injuries. Redd recently resurfaced in Phoenix but is in the twilight of his NBA career. Redd was an explosive long-range scorer once hitting a record eight three pointers in the fourth quarter on February 20, 2002. He has only played in 61 games since 2007-08, but still holds a 20.0 career points per game average, which peaked at 26.7 in 2006-07.

2003 – Mo Williams 47th
- Williams became an All-Star playing Robin to LeBron's Batman in 2009 for the Cavaliers when he averaged 17.8 points on 47% from the field, 44% from three-point range and 91% from the free-throw line. Williams has averaged 12.0 points per game for his career, and been a consistent point guard in Milwaukee, Cleveland and now as the sixth man for the Clippers.

2006 – Paul Millsap 47th
- Millsap is the only player to lead the NCAA in rebounding for three consecutive years, an impressive stat that earned him just the 47th overall selection in the 2006 NBA draft. Since entering the NBA Millsap has improved each season averaging 17.3 points and 7.6 rebounds in 2010-11. For his career Millsap has averaged 11.3 and 6.7, and is still just 26 years old.

2005 – Louis Williams 45th
- Lou Will was drafted 45th overall out of highschool after becoming the second all time leading scorer in Georgia high school basketball history and winning the 2005 Naismith Prep Player of the Year award. An adept scorer, Williams has given the surprisingly deep Sixers an important weapon off the bench averaging 10.7 points per game for his career along with 2.9 assists.

2005 – Marcin Gortat 57th
- Dubbed the Polish Hammer, Gortat helped the Orlando Magic to the 2009 NBA finals as Dwight Howard's backup and has grown into a daily double-double threat in Phoenix. In his 55 games as a Sun last season, Gortat averaged 13 points and 9.3 rebounds, dramatic improvements over his career averages of 5.9 and 5.5. Gortat is an improving post player and already one of the better centres in the league.

Honourable Mention
2004 – Trevor Ariza 44th
2008 – Mario Chalmers 34th

Recent Draft Pick Potential Steals
2011 – Josh Selby 49th
2011 – Isaiah Thomas 60th


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